A Proposed Methodology for Modelling the Solvency of a National Pension Scheme

The main aim of this study is to fit a model for predicting pension liability. proposed stochastic population determine the status scheme. By categorizing members Social Security and National Insurance Trust (SSNIT) scheme Ghana into five groups, birth death process with emigration pure coupled assumption Yule’s process, were combined successfully formulate forecasting surplus SSNIT be used as proxy assessing solvency reliability was corroborated by very high coverage probabilities estimates expected surpluses produced. demonstrated how easy it use carry out sensitivity analysis which allows exploration various scenarios leading formulation implementation policies enhance One major advantage that, uses more information (variables) compared others elsewhere same purpose. This contributes precision from model. A key finding that would have still been solvent had she increased 50%.